Forecasting Folly:CLSA Edition

Circa one year back on September 4,2014

Economic Times carries an article headlined “CLSA picks top four midcap stocks which can give up to 21% return in 1 year”

It helpfully puts out the following table for the benefit of its readers:

Now first forward to today i.e. September 3,2015.Interesting to see current prices now with respect to the targets given:

Company Name Target (Rs) CMP (Rs)
Tata Communications 450 383.4
Voltas 292 258.65
Phoenix Mills 390 327.8
Motherson Sumi 410 295.1
As on September 2,2015


Forecasting Folly, anyone?


Portfolio of Government Pension Fund Global in India

This post is in continuation of my coat tailing series (see here)

Government Pension Fund Global is a sovereign fund run by the Govt of Norway to support long term management of its petroleum revenue.

It has extensive holdings in India as can be seen by the table below (data as on 31 March,2013 as per stock exchanges websites)

Company Name # of Shares %
Arvind 11056037 4.28
Blue Dart Express 287000 1.21
Bombay Dyeing Mfg. 8376745 4.06
Gateway Distriparks 3674019 3.39
Glenmark Pharma 2844796 1.05
GMDC 5599549 1.76
Godrej Industries 6922864 2.07
Godrej Properties Ltd. 885365 1.13
HPCL 3685058 1.09
Indian Hotel 35324214 4.37
ING Vysya Bank 2527208 1.63
Jain Irrigation Sys 10695366 2.46
Jubilant LifeScience 1629414 1.02
Lupin 4721864 1.06
NCC 2598965 1.01
NIIT 4893491 2.96
Praj Industries 2260393 1.27
Sadbhav Engineering 4493775 2.98
SRF 1006000 1.75
Tata Chemicals 12554297 4.93
Tata Communications 4356947 1.53
Tata Global Beverage 8976940 1.45
Tube Investments 2002722 1.07
Unitech 33543938 1.28
Voltas 15312143 4.63
Zee Entertainment 19452062 2.04

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5 Stocks going through a Death Cross

This post is in continuation of my 5 Stocks Series (see here).

Death Cross is when the long term average(typically 200 days) breaks below the short term average(typically 50 days).This usually indicates a bearish outlook .

Symbol 50 Day Average 200 Day Average % Below
BHARATFORG 218.0310427 263.5094337 -17.26%
NMDC 139.169 168.297 -17.31%
RAYMOND 307.77 373.9985 -17.71%
RPOWER 73.297 89.35175 -17.97%
VOLTAS 83.562 103.78675 -19.49%

Voltas sinking deeper in Qatari quicksand

Voltas Ltd is the global airconditioning and engineering services provider for the TATA group.

For FY 12, their revenues were flattish-Rs.5175 Crores as compared to Rs.5177 Crores last year.

However their Net Profits took a huge hit-Rs.162 Crores as compared to Rs.352 Crores last year.

One big reason for falling profits despite flattish sales is an “Onerous Contract”

Voltas is executing around 1000 Crores of work for the Sidra Medical and Research Centre Hospital Project in Qatar.There have been significant upward revision in the estimated cost due to design changes and delay in execution.

As per their press release,

“There have been several impediments and constraints arising from delay in designs,frequent changes in architectural/interior layouts,ceiling height restrictions and abortive engineering /rework.Uncertainties exists on variations/additional revenue claims and costs to come till the completion of the project due to the complex nature of the ‘design and build’ project , changes in the design still made by the client and delay in completion of this project.”

Hmmm…is this corporate speak for “We don’t know when this nightmare will end and how much it will cost us !!”