Forecasting Folly:CLSA Edition

Circa one year back on September 4,2014

Economic Times carries an article headlined “CLSA picks top four midcap stocks which can give up to 21% return in 1 year”

It helpfully puts out the following table for the benefit of its readers:

Now first forward to today i.e. September 3,2015.Interesting to see current prices now with respect to the targets given:

Company Name Target (Rs) CMP (Rs)
Tata Communications 450 383.4
Voltas 292 258.65
Phoenix Mills 390 327.8
Motherson Sumi 410 295.1
As on September 2,2015


Forecasting Folly, anyone?

6 replies on “Forecasting Folly:CLSA Edition”

Motherson Sumi prices are not comparable. The stock has undergone a 3:2 split and bonus share issue in 1 year. On an adjusted basis, stock has given 15% return in 1 year if I calculated it right. Suggest you check that

It is widely reported now a days that FIIs have not earned or earned a measly 1% gain in the last 14-15 months since NaMo wave created euphoria in India partly because of wrong calls at wrong times and partly because of rupee depreciation. There is a growing feeling among investors about the intelligence and analytical acumen of FIIs in India. See, in the last few days, we all see whenever market is down, FIIs would have negative figures whereas DIIs would have positive figures.
This puts even the foreign analysts’ analysis and reports also under serious doubt.

TATACOMM went up to 505.80 on 15th April 2015 whereas target was 450 only
VOLTAS went up to 359.90 on 23rd June 2015 whereas target was 292 only
PHOENIXMILLS went up to 408 on 30th Jan 2015 whereas target was 390 only
MOTHERSUMI went up to 594 (if calculate on cum bonus basis) on 06th Aug. 2015 whereas target was 410 only.

The best part is all four stocks targets were met even before the one year time duration.


there are all records, sorry i don’t want to comment either about CLSA picks or your Forecasting Folly:CLSA Edition article. just share the truth. HOPE TRUTH ARE NOT BITTER ,if we take it in right spirit.

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