Category: ForecastingFolly

Forecasting Folly:CLSA Edition

Post author By Raoji
Post date September 3, 2015
6 Comments on Forecasting Folly:CLSA Edition

Circa one year back on September 4,2014

Economic Times carries an article headlined “CLSA picks top four midcap stocks which can give up to 21% return in 1 year”

It helpfully puts out the following table for the benefit of its readers:

Now first forward to today i.e. September 3,2015.Interesting to see current prices now with respect to the targets given:

Company Name	Target (Rs)	CMP (Rs)
Tata Communications	450	383.4
Voltas	292	258.65
Phoenix Mills	390	327.8
Motherson Sumi	410	295.1

As on September 2,2015

Forecasting Folly, anyone?

Tags clsa, mothesonsumi, phoenixmills, tatacomm, voltas

ForecastingFolly

Forecasting Folly: Manish Kumar Edition

Post author By Raoji
Post date September 2, 2015
No Comments on Forecasting Folly: Manish Kumar Edition

Manish Kumar is the Chief Investment Officer of ICICI Prudential Life which has a AUM of more than 1 Lakh Crores.

Here is what he said 2 weeks back

On #InBusiness, Manish Kumar, ICICI Pru Life: Don’t expect Nifty to break 8000 on the downside. pic.twitter.com/ZMzCsIVtYg

— Bloomberg TV India (@BloombergTVInd) August 21, 2015

Forecasting Folly, anyone?

ForecastingFolly

Forecasting Folly:Raamdeo Agarwal Edition

Post author By Raoji
Post date September 1, 2015
5 Comments on Forecasting Folly:Raamdeo Agarwal Edition

I hugely admire Raamdeo Agarwal of Motilal Oswal for his stock market expertise.

Yet it is instructive and amusing how even stock market veterans don’t have a clue how the future will pan out.

In this interview exactly one year back, dated 1 Sept 2014,Raamdeo Agarwal makes the following bold prediction:

Latha:Udayan was saying he was expecting Nifty to be 9,000 around the budget.Your guess?

Raamdeo Agarwal:By the next budget,it should be closer to 10,000.Because we were in Delhi and speaking to some people.They are saying that first budget was more about cleaning up and small incremental measures but the second budget will be full of big bang reforms

Forecasting Folly, anyone?