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ForecastingFolly

Forecasting Folly:Raamdeo Agarwal Edition

I hugely admire Raamdeo Agarwal of Motilal Oswal for his stock market expertise.

Yet it is instructive and amusing how even stock market veterans don’t have a clue how the future will pan out.

In this interview exactly one year back, dated 1 Sept 2014,Raamdeo Agarwal makes the following bold prediction:

Latha:Udayan was saying he was expecting Nifty to be 9,000 around the budget.Your guess?

Raamdeo Agarwal:By the next budget,it should be closer to 10,000.Because we were in Delhi and speaking to some people.They are saying that first budget was more about cleaning up and small incremental measures but the second budget will be full of big bang reforms

Forecasting Folly, anyone?

5 replies on “Forecasting Folly:Raamdeo Agarwal Edition”

Dear Nitin,

Not forecasting folly, but incentive-cause bias. If I am a authority and I have incentives in making a certain claim; then who cares if I am proven right or wrong 🙂

It’s like asking an employee if he is adding value to his employer 🙂

I am an admirer of Mr Agarwal too. The folly is that of taking government / beuraucracy on face value and forecasting without (50% plus) discounting.

Obviously the man was positively biased towards the Govt., but he always said he was never good at predecting index levels and his job was picking great ideas using self devised SQGLP.

The fault lies with NDA Govt. which came with huge mandate and euphoric expectations. Even the second Budget delivered on 28th Feb 2015 was actually a disaster. Whispers have started that Arun Jaitley is the biggest folly in NaMo’s core team. He did not do any thing good for the economy or economic recovery in the past 15 months of NDA rule. All his actions were meaning less and even negative for the Business sentiment in the country. Any good bonhomie prevailing in the business community is because of optimism created even today by NaMo. You look at the list of flounders done by Arun Jaitley. Indian economy and business in general have receded hope of “Achhe Din”.
Arun Jaitley’s open spat with RBI Governor, his stand of P-Notes, his stand on Black money and the way to tackle it-all are question marks.

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