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Raoji's Corner

Bombay High Court as a source of alpha

In a country like India, judiciary plays a key role in deciding the fortunes of companies and sectors.

This was aptly illustrated recently in the case of DB Realty.

In the afternoon of 31 Dec,2014, DB Realty released an announcement to the exchanges in respect of certain properties proposed for development by the Company, its subsidiary and associates arising out of Orders passed by the Hon’ble High Court Bombay.

As soon as this press release hit the exchanges,all hell broke loose.The stock raced from Rs.58.05 to close at the highs of the day at Rs.69.95 -a gain of 20%

Even today the stock closed at Rs.76.85 a gain of around 9.85%

Effectively, the stock has gained 33% since it released its press release to the stock exchanges

The markets obviously got excited by the prospects of DB Realty in light of these favorable orders

Take for example,the Bandra (W) project of DB Realty:

From a CNBC interview:

So what will the revenue potential be for this particular project and when do you think the project will come on stream?
A: This should take about six months because now we will be submitting our plans in the next three months and may take about three months to get the approval. Unlike Mahalaxmi project or Marine Lines project where the designs, plans are already submitted. So, we expect those two projects to kind of receive the approval in about three months and Bandra project should be in about six months. So, that has a potential of 12 lakh square feet and again at about Rs 40,000 – 50,000 we have about Rs 5,000 crore potential there as well.

Now comes the interesting part-the orders passed by the Bombay High Court have come in much earlier.The order of the Bandra (W) project (Case No:WP/3152/2014(stamp) ) was passed on 18 December,2014 !

So it took nearly 2 weeks for the stock markets to realize and understand the implications of this order.It would have probably taken longer than that had the Company itself not informed the exchanges.

So is the Case List of the Bombay High Court a fertile area to ferret out stock ideas?

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Cartoon

Stock picking explained

Hat tip Dalal Street

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Links

Linkfest:Jan 01,2015

Wish all readers a very happy 2015.

Some stuff I am reading today morning:

George Soros:Europe at war (Mint)

Telcos to make tough calls as spectrum war heats up (ET)

Markets:15 things to expect in 2015 (BS)

Here’s why 2015 will be a do-or-die year for Modi (Firstpost)

Project Modi is underway (Swapan)

Robert Vadra gets a tax notice (FE)

The ugly story that is the Greek stock market (JLFMI)

Basant Maheshwari explains stock picking strategy (RJ)

US Top 50 Financial Blogs (Kitces)

Raising a toast to market forecasts (Bloomberg)

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Chart

Some things never change

Source:ValueWalk

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Excerpts

RBL Bank:In the fast lane

(Disclosure:I am market making in the shares of RBL Bank)

RBL Bank, a mid-sized lender, is a potential takeover target for some larger banks. Not surprising, considering that the bank has been turned around in the last four years by its Managing Director and CEO, Vishwavir Ahuja. “Many,” says Ahuja, when asked whether any bank had approached RBL for a friendly merger.

Indeed, several old private-sector banks have been acquired in recent years. Unlike RBL (formerly Ratnakar Bank), the survival of most of them was at stake because of poor operating performance. Ahuja is confident of the future prospects of his bank. “There is no question of any merger,” he says. Clearly, the bank, under a new management since June 2010, which includes foreign bankers, is aiming big.

In the BT-KPMG study, RBL has emerged as a “Growth Winner” among mid-sized banks. It has a balance sheet size of Rs 18,198 crore and grew its deposits by 39 per cent and advances by 54 per cent in 2013/14. The three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in deposits as well as advances is over 70 per cent. The fee income jumped 110 per cent in 2013/14. The number of branches has jumped from 80 in 2010 to close to 200 now. “We are very much in the interim phase in our long journey,” says Ahuja.

RBL, under Ahuja, actually went and bought the credit card business of Royal Bank of Scotland in August 2013. In the last four years, Ahuja has revamped the top management, raised capital from marquee names, rebranded its identity as RBL, and launched Internet banking, among other business initiatives.

RBL focused on small and medium enterprises when Ahuja took over. The total size of the loan book was just Rs 900 crore and the bank also had a negative return on equity (ROE) in 2010. Today, all its businesses have been expanding at a scorching pace, expanding anywhere between four and 10 times in the past four years. Its loan book is now about Rs 9,835 crore and it has an ROCE of 5.12 per cent.

“We want to be a mass-banking institution rather than an urban-centric bank,” says Ahuja. The bank already has a presence in 13 states and will expand to 17 states next year and 20 states in 2016.

The next trigger for the bank’s growth will come from its IPO, according to Ahuja. “We will raise a significant chunk of capital in the near future,” he says. But there are challenges ahead. The big private banks, including HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, are expanding into rural and semi-urban India, a thrust area for RBL. The Reserve Bank of India’s new differentiated licensing mechanism will create new payment and small banks focused on rural and semi-urban centres. But Ahuja remains unfazed. “The competitive landscape will definitely change in the future, but there is enough space for everyone,” he says-from Business World