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Quotes

Why investing is like poker

Too many investors are reactive decision makers… if something has gone up, they say ‘ah, that’s a good investment,’ they don’t say ‘that’s more expensive.’  It’s the most common mistake in investing.

The bets are zero sum.  In order for you to beat me in the game, it’s like poker, it’s a zero sum game.  We have 1,500 people that work at Bridgewater, we spend hundreds of millions of dollars on research, and so on.  We’ve been doing this for 37 years and we don’t know that we’re going to win.  We have to have diversified bets.  So it’s very important for most people to know when not to make a bet.  Because if you’re going to come to the poker table, you’re going to have to beat me, and you’re going to have to beat those who take money.  So the nature of investing is that a very small percentage of the people take money essentially in that poker game away from other people who don’t know when prices go up whether that means it’s a good investment or if it’s a more expensive investment.-said Ray Dalio

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Video

Nokia abandons its dividend after 143 years !!

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Humor

Dr. Kumar Vishwas in 2012

Fairly humorous !

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Mumbai Realty

Mumbai realty bubble has burst !

I had blogger earlier about Mumbai’s realty (see here and here).

It appears that now the bubble has finally burst.First, check out the tweet below by noted crusader Y.P. Singh:


I think the key phrase is “more investment made”. Mumbai builders are struggling to raise money.The normal source of funds (aka customer advances) is not available as people are now not interested in buying at nose bleed valuations.To give an example of how absurd Mumbai valuations are, just look at this example:

In a premium realty project, a 4BHK purchaser has to take 4 parking lots compulsorily.Each lot costs 10 Lakh Rupees.So he is shelling out 40 Lakhs just for parking !!

 

Right now, there is a huge glut of inventory and half completed projects.A serious buyer armed with a cheque book can easily get upto 25% off from the rack price.

Investors are besieged with offers of buyback deals.One recent deal in Dahisar (E) goes like this:buy at 5000 psf and sell back to the builder at 6250 psf within a year.Before you get too excited, remember registration,stamp duty,vat,service tax, brokerage etc will eat up a chunk of your gains !And there is no guarantee the builder will actually honor the buyback !

Commercial space is another area where the inventory glut is noticeable.The most happening commercial area in Mumbai is BKC-where NSE,ICICI Bank etc are located.There are entire buildings there lying unoccupied.Tenants are bargaining hard and landlords are caving in to their demands.

Most realty observers felt that there would be a time correction but not a price correction in Mumbai i.e. prices will remain stagnant for a long period of time.But the current situation indicates that a price correction is truly underway.

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Video

How Rahul Bajaj spent his time at Davos