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Links

Linkfest:October 23,2015

Some stuff I am reading today morning:

Over 75% real estate projects are non-starters (FE)

Rakesh Gangwal lays out the vision for Indigo (Mint)

OMC stocks wilt (ET)

Nobel Prize Winner says India is faking its economic data (WSJ)

Market musings (Bala)

Taxes are why long term passive is better than short term trading (Prashant)

Invest like a hedge fund manager (ETF)

Who on Wall Street is losing on the oil trade (Wolf Street)

Daniel Kahneman on intuition (Compounding My Interest)

A guide to equity investment (Colaco & Aranha)

Categories
Links

Linkfest:October 22,2015

Wishing all readers a Happy Dussehra.

Some stuff I am reading today morning:

Sovereign wealth funds sell Indian stocks (ET)

Debt continues to weigh down on India Inc (Mint)

Centre may halve Coal India OFS (FE)

Buyback famine in the markets (VRO)

Mission Impossible:Beating the markets over long periods of time (AA)

Making sense of long term returns (CFA)

The difference between a portfolio manager and portfolio management (Common Sense)

12% a year in stocks (Bill Bonner)

Apple’s Tim Cook:Massive change is coming to car industry (Recode)

Saudis risk going broke in 5 years (Bloomberg)

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Cartoon

Not Shopping,Investing

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Links

Linkfest:October 21,2015

Some stuff I am reading today morning:

VCs scramble to cash in on the fintech boom (Mint)

Spreading cash like manure (OB)

PE investors sell as NSE delays IPO (ET)

Arvind:On the path of reinventing itself (VRO)

Investment lies we tell ourselves (Subramoney)

Individual Bonds Vs Bond Funds (Common Sense)

12 Startup lessons Steve Jobs taught me (Big Picture)

The ‘Get my Shit together’ afternoon (Medium)

How to be a quant (Turing Finance)

The Collected Wisdom of Seth Klarman (Scribd)

Categories
Excerpts Quotes

Investing:Skill or Luck?

I’ll take one trader, one of the most amazing ones, Ed Thorp…He was the guy who changed the way casinos operate. His first fund ran nineteen years, gross returns 19% per year and that’s good, but that’s not the amazing part. The amazing part is nineteen years he had three losing months, all of them were less than one percent. If you had twelve tosses of a coin, nineteen times, you only get three tails, what are the odds of that? And that’s conservative because his wins were larger than his losses, so the odds are smaller. But I did the probability calculation and the odds of his track record being luck are one million times less than the odds of picking a random atom in the entire mass of the earth, and then picking that same atom a second time. In other words, it’s impossible. It’s true that you will get some successful track records by luck, but these ones are beyond luck, that’s impossible if the markets were efficient.”-said Jack Schwager