The Centre has taken two key decisions today-one is allowing FDI in multibrand retail and the other is 49% FDI in aviation.
This leaves the Trinamool Congress in a very difficult position as they had publicly opposed these measures.In fact, these measures were shelved/rolled back as the Govt felt that without Trinamool Congress backing it, the Govt would fall.
This time it appears to be different as Dr.Singh in the cabinet meet said “If we have to go down, we have to go down fighting”
So with rollback not in sight and the Congress determined not to back down, TMC will probably withdraw support.
Now this event has a probability of 50%.But what is sure to happen with a 100% probability is that the Govt will turn to the Samajwadi Party for support for these measures.
The Samajwadi party has bailed out the government multiple times in the past.It is quite likely it will bail out the govt again.
Whenever the Samajwadi Party is in a position of power,industrial groups close to it benefit.As everyone knows, Anil Ambani is fairly close to Mulayam Singh having being the Rajya Sabha member of the party.
So, in the banana republic of India where politics and business are bedfellows, expect ADA stocks to rally in the coming weeks on news of multi brand retail !!