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Crackpots invest alone

Outlook 15American virologist David Baltimore, who won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1975 for his work on the genetic mechanisms of viruses, once told me that over the years (and especially while he was president of CalTech) he had received many manuscripts claiming to have solved some great scientific problem or to have overthrown the existing scientific paradigm to provide some grand theory of everything. Most prominent scientists have drawers full of similar submissions, almost always from people who work alone and outside of the scientific community. Unfortunately, none of these offerings has done anything remotely close to what was claimed, and Dr. Baltimore offered some fascinating insight into why he thinks that’s so. At its best, he noted, good science is a collaborative, community effort. On the other hand, crackpots work alone.

Outlook 16Similarly, the idea of a lone genius changing the world is also a myth. As The Los Angeles Times reported about Bill Gross and PIMCO, “In the wake of [Mohammed] El-Erian’s departure, stories leaked out about Gross’ imperious behavior – traders were forbidden to speak to him or even make eye contact on the trading floor, the Wall Street Journal reported. He brooked no discussion or debate about his trading strategies and became hostile to rising talents on the floor.” Whether we’re talking about Lennon and McCartney or Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, we all work better with help, advice, support, correction, criticism and accountability. Make sure you aren’t trying to go it alone in the investment world.

-from RPSeaWright

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ICICI Pru Ulip bet pays off

(Disclosure:I am market making in the shares of ICICI Pru Life)

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company is reaping the benefit of focusing on unit-linked insurance plans (Ulips).

The private sector insurer is witnessing a robust growth in its new business premium as Ulips are back in favour among savers with stocks hitting record levels. The share of Ulips in the company’s product basket has also inched up.

Ulips are insurance-cum-investment plans where some portion of the premium goes towards providing an insurance cover and the rest is invested in equities or debt, or a mix of both. They were extremely popular before 2008 partly because of the returns they offered despite high charges.

After the global meltdown in 2008, Ulips fell out of favour as the high charges impacted the returns. However, the bull run at the stock markets, declining interest rates over the past one year and the rationalisation of charges by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority (IRDA) have brought the shine back to these instruments.

Ulips accounted for around 42 per cent of the new business premium in 2010-11 but declined to 7 per cent in 2013-14. However, during the first half of the current fiscal, their contribution has risen to 9 per cent. This uptrend has been led by the private sector where their share has risen to 34 per cent during April-September 2014 from 29 per cent in 2013-14.

For ICICI Prudential Life, Ulips now account for a little over 84 per cent in terms of retail weighted received premium for the nine month period ended December against 63.4 per cent in the corresponding period of last year and 66.5 per cent in the previous fiscal. Retail new business premium increased nearly 37 per cent to Rs 3,153 crore from Rs 2,307 crore in the year-ago period. Sources said the private life insurer had also been able to better industry growth rates during the period.-from Telegraph India

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BSE to start commodity trading by next fiscal

 

Disclosure:I am market making in the shares of BSE

The Bombay Stock Exchange plans to start its own commodity exchange by next fiscal year, BSE’s Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Ashishkumar Chauhan has said.

He said that the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has already permitted BSE’s foray into commodity trading through its own exchange. Since commodity trading in India is regulated by the Forward Markets Commission (FMC), BSE is now awaiting the Commission’s nod.

“BSE plans to set up a commodity exchange for which SEBI has already given us its permission. Now, we are awaiting FMC’s clearance as we have already applied for the licence. We are hopeful about starting the exchange by the next fiscal after getting FMC clearance,” Chauhan said during his interaction with reporters here recently.

Commenting on BSE’s future road map, Chauhan hinted at transforming the exchange into a more “society friendly” institution rather than merely focussing on making money through commissions.

He said that BSE could become irrelevant if it failed to focus on what society needed, that is, capital formation and new investment, rather than mere trading.

“Exchanges focus on trading, since they get 70 per cent to 80 per cent of their income from commissions. However, society is not interested merely in trading. Exchanges may become irrelevant if they don’t focus on what society and country needs, which is capital formation, new initial public offers (IPOs) etc,” Chauhan said. –from BS

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How thinking like Charlie Munger saved my life

For a few months I had been having slight pain in my biceps near my elbows.  My doctor said it was probably an injury from lifting weights.  One night about four weeks ago I was sleeping soundly when I was jolted awaked by much more significant bilateral pain in both of my biceps.  I immediately thought:  “I am having a heart attack; I need to get to an emergency room.”   I woke my wife and asked her to get dressed quickly and to get in the car.  As we were driving to the hospital the painful sensations in my biceps started to go away.  It was at that point that I believe I started telling myself a story about the pain in my arms not really being from a heart attack.   I am sure I was subconsciously thinking: “I have a busy schedule next week. I can’t afford to have a heart attack right now.  This pain is probably nothing.  I probably just hurt myself in the gym. Who gets bicep pain with a heart attack and no chest pain?”  I then said to my wife:  “Maybe we should go home.”  My wife insisted we go to the emergency room.  I might have argued with her, but at that moment I reminded myself about Munger and Buffett’s approach to risk:

Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do. It’s imperfect, but that’s what it’s all about.http://beta.fool.com/danielsparks/2012/12/14/berkshire-hathaways-downside-protection/18950/

Going to the emergency room emergency room for tests on my heart function was clearly wise since the amount of possible loss was so massive even if the probability was small (which it was not given the symptoms).  After thinking about this formula I no longer argued with my wife about going to the emergency room.  In this case rationality (and my wife) overcame psychological denial, over-optimism and other negative decision making heuristics.  It turned out that my pain was from a small heart attack and three days later I was in the operating room for a triple bypass.-from 25IQ

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The Short Term Investor

Looking after your health is as important as looking after your wealth. There is one big fat Indian investor icon – and he talks of the long run. When you look at him, you wonder about his health. He is surely going to be around only for the short term!!wrote Subramoney