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Crackpots invest alone

Outlook 15American virologist David Baltimore, who won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 1975 for his work on the genetic mechanisms of viruses, once told me that over the years (and especially while he was president of CalTech) he had received many manuscripts claiming to have solved some great scientific problem or to have overthrown the existing scientific paradigm to provide some grand theory of everything. Most prominent scientists have drawers full of similar submissions, almost always from people who work alone and outside of the scientific community. Unfortunately, none of these offerings has done anything remotely close to what was claimed, and Dr. Baltimore offered some fascinating insight into why he thinks that’s so. At its best, he noted, good science is a collaborative, community effort. On the other hand, crackpots work alone.

Outlook 16Similarly, the idea of a lone genius changing the world is also a myth. As The Los Angeles Times reported about Bill Gross and PIMCO, “In the wake of [Mohammed] El-Erian’s departure, stories leaked out about Gross’ imperious behavior – traders were forbidden to speak to him or even make eye contact on the trading floor, the Wall Street Journal reported. He brooked no discussion or debate about his trading strategies and became hostile to rising talents on the floor.” Whether we’re talking about Lennon and McCartney or Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, we all work better with help, advice, support, correction, criticism and accountability. Make sure you aren’t trying to go it alone in the investment world.

-from RPSeaWright

2 replies on “Crackpots invest alone”

Doesn’t work every time in the investment world. In markets, “consensus” is a very expensive thing.

“Alone” is not the opposite of “Consensus”.Merely says you need to discuss your investment thesis with others to get a more balanced view.

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