This post is in continuation of my Forecasting Folly series (see here)
On 7th March, 2011, Dalal Street’s finest at Sunidhi Securities came out with a research report on Gokul Refoils.
The then prevailing price was Rs.98, a target price of Rs.125 was assigned to the stock.
Fast forward, 18 months later, Gokul is languishing at around Rs.44 (today’s price).
This is one third of the target price and half of the then prevailing price.
Forecasting folly, anyone?
Some stuff that I am reading today morning:
SEBI puzzled at 60000 Crore worth of IPOs not hitting the market (BusinessLine)
Is Modi better at marketing than Coca Cola ? (ET)
Berkshire buys 1.2 Billion $ in stock from a single investor (FE)
Brokerage fees touch a new low (Mint)
Who saved Dhoni? (MumbaiMirror)
PFC tax free bonds review (OneMint)
Stay hungry, stay foolish, start up !! (Rodinhoods)
Goldilocks diversification (RPSeaWright)
How corruption is strangling US innovation (HBR)
Biggest opportunity will be shorting the bond market:Ray Dalio (CNBC)
One of legendary trader Paul Tudor Jone’s sayings was “I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over.”
In the Indian context, noone (including the regulatory authorities) can explain why something is going up or something is going down.
Revathi Equiment was trading at 256 Rs/share on 4th Dec.One week later , today it closed at 360 Rs/share…a whopping gain of 40% in a week !!
Why did it go up?Nobody knows…neither the promoters,nor the exchanges nor SEBI.
Here’s what the company announcement on NSE’s website says: