Another great poem from Cavafy…suitable for amateur traders.
Possessed by fear and suspicion,
mind agitated, eyes alarmed,
we desperately invent ways out,
plan how to avoid the inevitable
danger that threatens us so terribly.
Yet we’re mistaken, that’s not the danger ahead:
the information was false
(or we didn’t hear it, or didn’t get it right).
Another disaster, one we never imagined,
suddenly, violently, descends upon us,
and finding us unprepared—there’s no time left—
sweeps us away.
Jiro is the greatest sushi chef in the world.And yet, he feels he has a long way to go before he masters his craft.I love the way he says “You must love your job.You must fall in love with your work” -(Hattip AbnormalReturns)
Some stuff I am reading today morning:
We pay 400000 Crores in bribe taxes every year (FirstPost)
A bandh for opening Vedanta’s Odisha refinery (BS)
Drug makers may have to tweak domestic business model (Mint)
Why are we obsessed with saving taxes? (OneMint)
Put Uruguay on your shortlist (DailyReckoning)
DE Shaw geniuses build their greatest model (DealBreaker)
5 Reasons you deserve to lose every penny in the market (BCLund)
Its my wife’s bday and dedicating this Mukesh classic to her.
I want to share a quick thought with you today–a little trick in thinking that made a big difference in my trading a few years ago. One of the problems with traders is that we can be stubborn. This happens to everyone, and no one is ever immune to it. It takes a lot of confidence to pull the trigger, and sometimes much analysis and hard work has gone into justifying the trade. What do we do when contradictory information emerges? Well, sometimes the shock of seeing that the trade is wrong can even cause traders to freeze, with disastrous consequences.
I developed a little trick that might seem trivial, but it is very important. Simply put, anytime to you put a trade on, assume that the trade is going to be a loser. No matter how much analysis, how many supporting factors, or how perfect the pattern is, assume that the trade will lose money. This creates a profound shift in your focus because, rather than searching for and possibly discounting contradictory evidence (which can sometimes be as simple as “I just bought and now it’s going down…”), you will be open to and will readily accept contradicting information. Of course you will, because you assumed the trade was wrong to begin with. When you find confirmation for the trade, it is almost a pleasant surprise. Shift your thinking into this mode, and you will be much less likely to overstay your welcome in suboptimal setups that are not working out–you’ll be far more likely to do the right thing, which is usually to pull the plug on the trade (time stop) and look for a better opportunity.- wrote veteran trader Adam Grimes