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Compound Effort

Starting out in life, young people are practically interchangeable parts. They leave school not knowing much of anything. If they can read and write clearly, they have an advantage over most college graduates. But school doesn’t prepare them very well for real life. School problems are bounded, controlled, and simplified. Usually, they are idealized, with the confusing parts taken out. In history, for example, they are taught broad themes…and specific ‘facts.’ But the sequence of events in real life doesn’t follow simple scripts. Instead, it is endlessly complex.

In every discipline, the phenomenon is the same – in school, the complexities of real life are removed so that students can be tested on set groups of memorable, learnable, understandable bits of stripped-down, sanitized ‘knowledge.’

That is why more education does not always lead to more success in the real world. In fact, it could go in the opposite direction. The better you get at handling the artificial world of academia, the worse you may do at solving the real world’s infinitely nuanced challenges.

Problem solving in the academic world typically involves a part of the brain – but only a part of the brain. It is the ‘rational’ part…the part that remembers facts, reads, writes, and connects the dots. That is the skill measured by the SAT tests, for example. They are tests of ‘scholastic aptitude.’ And they are pretty good at measuring what they are supposed to measure. If you able to do the kind of tricks the tests require, you’ll be able to handle the kind of work they give you in school.

But life sends very different tests your way. Life’s tests involve many, many more variables – so many that your ‘rational’ mind is frequently overwhelmed. The human face, for example, is capable of hundreds…or thousands…of different expressions. Some people seem better able to read these messages than others.

In the world of textbooks, other people scarcely matter. You read. You write. You check the boxes. But once you get into a workplace, you are faced with an entirely new test. How well can you get along with others, motivate them, lead them?

In school, tests are anticipated. In real life, you never know when you will be tested. You never know what you will be tested on. And even when you are in the middle of an important test, you often don’t know it.

In some careers you are able to apply the body of knowledge you picked up in school, but not many. In most careers, you have to learn on the job – a new body of knowledge, often additional, sometimes completely new and different. And unless your job is to throw the switch on a toll bridge, or to collect tolls on a toll road, your new knowledge is likely to involve a great many things that are uncertain…unknowable…and variable.

Even in ‘routine’ careers there is still plenty of room for career advancement and money-making. But it requires you to step beyond the routine. If you are a schoolteacher, for example, you might have to write a book on education…or start a school of your own. Or, if you are a carpenter, you could set up a carpentry business…or use your skills to build something rare and interesting enough that it could be sold at high margin…or mass produced.

Generally, the more formulaic the work, the less scope for making money at it. The more limited, that is to say, the more like school any job is, the less likely you are to turn it into a source of wealth, power, or outsize success.

But assuming you are doing something that is not routine, not formulaic, and not limited (an assembly-line worker, for example, may be able to earn a good living…but it is not a way to build a fortune), what is the secret to making a success of it? Ah, glad you asked. At least part of the secret is sticking to it. Here’s why…

If your work is not simple and not formulaic, you need to use a fair amount of creative thinking, innovation and entrepreneurship to get ahead. Sometimes your work can be reduced to simple, school-like thinking. More often, it is more complex…involving subtle judgments about people…guesses about how others will react…mastering new technology and leadership skills needed to get others to follow your plan, and so forth. It may involve raising money…’selling’ your ideas…taking a chance on a new career or a new business…convincing clients to leave their habitual sources…or convincing employees to work harder…or better.

You may have to develop a new product. Or, maybe you have an insight that tells you how to invest your firm’s resources more productively.

Whatever it is, it is likely to require more than your ‘school brain’ to make it happen. It is likely to involve wisdom…intuition…and ‘people skills.’ It is likely to require more of you – your brain…your personality…your heart. And maybe soul too.

It is likely to require trusted contacts, seasoned hunches, educated guesses…

Where do these things come from?

Malcolm Gladwell’s book, Outliers, makes the point that there is no secret to success. Successful people just put in more hours than other people. Our point today is similar. Success is usually the product of compound effort over time. It takes time to develop contacts. It takes time to develop trust – both of your own team and outside clients/customers/associates. It takes time and experience to develop the hunches and instincts that are useful in real life. It takes time too to understand other people and learn how to work with them. It also takes time to build a foundation of human and financial capital that allows you to take advantage of the insights and opportunities that experience bring you.

Time does not work in a linear, mathematical way. As with compound interest, time pays off geometrically. As contacts, experiences, wisdom, innovations and intuition are added one to another, your opportunities multiply. A $100,000 deal that you might have done when you were 25 grows into a $1 million deal 5 years later. And instead of doing two deals a year…you might do 10 a year.

This is also why it is so important to put in lots of time. Gladwell refers to the Beatles, major league athletes and people such as Bill Gates. In every case, he found that the leading figures in their industries put in thousands of hours – usually far more than their competitors. They may appear to be ‘gifted.’ Their achievements may seem effortless. But they are almost always the product of time.

Not only that, but the time spent at the end is much more powerful than the time at the beginning. You can see this by looking at charts of compound interest. Starting from a low base, the first series of compound interest produce little difference. But at the end, the results are spectacular.

Start with a penny. Double it every day. At the end of a week you are still only adding 32 cents per day. By the end of the third week, however, you’re adding more than $10,000 per day. So you see, the last increments of time are much more important than the first.

It doesn’t exactly work that way in real life, of course. Hang around too long and you get tired…and the lessons you’ve learned might not be applicable to the new realities. Suppose, for example, that you had learned to make the perfect buggy whip, at age 55, in 1910! Or imagine that you were the leading expert on silent movies…just before the ‘talkies’ started. Or maybe you were cornering the classified advertising market…just as Craigslist and eBay made their appearance.

But aside from that kind of a setback, time compounds your advantages. At age 20, you may know less than everyone in your business. But then, you work 10 hours a day, while others only work 8 hours. In 20 years, you may know more than just about anyone. Then, who gets the new contracts? Who finds the new opportunities? Who has pricing power?

Who makes money?

Compound interest works because each addition is then put in service to earn another increment of gain. Compound effort works the same way. Every insight, innovation and useful contact helps bring on another, bigger and better one.

Remember, success is competitive. While you are adding to your business capital, your competitors tend to wear out…move on…or retire. Sticking to it is not easy. People tend to get distracted. They often want easier, simpler, faster opportunities. They give up their accumulated capital…and take up something new. That leaves you in a commanding position.

Stick to it.

wrote Bill Bonner

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Rakesh Jhunjhunwala on trading and investing

Source:Kiran D
[gview file=”https://alphaideas.in/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/TheSmartManager-ShethSisodia-Oct-Nov-06_352_.pdf”]

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The Press Release that will ensure Modi is re-elected as PM

The Union Cabinet, chaired by the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi, today approved the launch of Deendayal Upadhyaya Gram Jyoti Yojana (DDUGJY) with components (i) to separate agriculture and non agriculture feeders facilitating judicious rostering of supply to agricultural and non-agricultural consumers in rural areas and (ii) strengthening and augmentation of sub transmission and distribution infrastructure in rural areas, including metering of distribution transformers/feeders/consumers.

The estimated cost of the scheme for above two components is Rs.43,033 crore which includes the requirement of budgetary support of Rs.33,453 crore from Government of India over the entire implementation period.

The Cabinet further approved, that the balance work relating to rural electrification as per CCEA’s approval in August, 2013 with the norms of the ongoing scheme of RGGVY in 12th and 13th Plans will get subsumed in DDUGJY as a distinct component for rural electrification, for which CCEA has already approved the scheme cost of Rs.39,275 crore including budgetary support of Rs.35,447 crore. This outlay will be carried forward to the new scheme of DDUGJY in addition to the outlay of Rs.43,033 crore.

The scheme would help in:

(i) Improvement in hours of power supply in rural areas,
(ii) Reduction in peak load,
(iii) Improvement in billed energy based on metered consumption and
(iv) Providing access to electricity to rural households.

The process of sanction of projects shall commence immediately. After sanction of projects, contracts for execution of projects will be awarded by States Discoms / Power Departments. The projects shall be completed within 24 months from date of award.

-from Press Information Bureau,Govt Of India

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Can BSE challenge MCX’s monopoly in commodities trading?

(Disclosure:I am market making in the shares of Bombay Stock Exchange)
Will BSE Ltd’s plan to enter the commodity segment bear much fruit?
Taking up such challenges isn’t new to the exchange. About three years ago, when BSE started competing in the equity derivatives space, it had started from scratch. Its traded volumes in this segment are far more healthy now, although this is aided by market making incentives to trading members.
Similarly, it has managed decent volumes in the currency derivatives segment, despite a rather late launch. Again, it helped that it didn’t charge for transactions for quite a few months since its launch. While transaction charges are expected to commence from next month, they will be at a fraction of what its competitors charge. In sum, BSE has done well in garnering volumes in two market segments by lowering costs for traders. Of course, it remains to be seen if volumes will be sustainable once it starts charging fees at cost-plus rates.

But pursuing a similar strategy in the commodities space may entail some additional challenges. To start with, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) currently doesn’t permit market making. Even if it does allow it in the future, BSE might find the regulator’s ownership guidelines to be a constraint. New shareholding guidelines for commodity exchanges limit the maximum ownership of one entity at 15%. Even if BSE manages to gather other investors to buy an 85% stake in the new venture, it will need a buy-in from this set of investors to invest a reasonably high sum for market making purposes. Like the equity segment, commodities trading now includes a transaction tax, which means that market making schemes should at least offset a large part of this cost for trading members to consider the new platform.

On the positive side, lately, BSE’s faster trading technology, sourced from Deutsche Borse, has generated interest from the trading community. And compared to MCX’s other competitors in the commodities space, BSE is far more aggressive and has better relationships with the trading community. While these factors should help, many others need to fall in place for traders to be open to shifting loyalties.
-from Mint
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BSE Derivative turnover spikes to Rs 116 lakh cr for Apr-Oct

(Disclosure: I am market making in the shares of Bombay Stock Exchange)

Equity derivative turnover at BSE has grown substantially to over Rs 116 lakh crore so far in the current fiscal, from year-ago levels, as the exchange has put in place new measures including technology systems for faster trades.

The exchange had recorded trades amounting to about Rs 50 lakh crore, during the April-October period in fiscal 2013-14.

In the last six months itself, the orders per day at BSE has grown nearly three times from 15 crore per day to 45 crore per day, helped by a faster technology.

In terms of volumes, the trades on the exchange also surged to nearly 30 crore in the first seven months of current fiscal as against 16.80 crore in the year-ago period.

BSE, a top exchange globally for the number of listed companies, had upgraded its technology platform to Bolt Plus for all its segments earlier this year.

Following this, the equity derivative segment value on the bourse has stood at Rs 19-24 lakh crore on a monthly basis, as against Rs 5 lakh crore in April.

Number of derivative contracts also surged from 1.5 crore in April to more than 5 crore in the subsequent months.

“BSE implemented new technology in April 2014 which provides response time of 200 micro-seconds with a capacity of 500,000 orders per second.

“It is faster than any exchange by ten times or more in India giving significant advantage to the investors who trade on BSE vis-a-vis other exchanges,” BSE CEO Ashish Chauhan told PTI.

Noting that it had been only six months since the new system was implemented, Chauhan said: “Even within this short period of six months, number of orders per day on BSE has gone up from 15 crore per day to 45 crore per day”.

According to Chauhan, many Indian members and even foreign brokerages who were not trading on BSE earlier have started connecting to the new system.

“We believe even now many exchange technology vendors have not changed their technology to interact with high speed and scale system like the one BSE has implemented at 200 micro seconds.

“We believe it will take some more time for old technology vendors to change to the new faster technology… Only 20 per cent vendors seem to have changed their systems yet. Once the balance 80 per cent technology vendors change their system to become faster to match BSE system, it will perhaps see more than 200 or 300 crore orders per day on routine basis,” he added.-from BS