Categories
Quotes

A little mental trick for trading

I want to share a quick thought with  you today–a little trick in thinking that made a big difference in my trading a few years ago. One of the problems with traders is that we can be stubborn. This happens to everyone, and no one is ever immune to it. It takes a lot of confidence to pull the trigger, and sometimes much analysis and hard work has gone into justifying the trade. What do we do when contradictory information emerges? Well, sometimes the shock of seeing that the trade is wrong can even cause traders to freeze, with disastrous consequences.

I developed a little trick that might seem trivial, but it is very important. Simply put, anytime to you put a trade on, assume that the trade is going to be a loser. No matter how much analysis, how many supporting factors, or how perfect the pattern is, assume that the trade will lose money. This creates a profound shift in your focus because, rather than searching for and possibly discounting contradictory evidence (which can sometimes be as simple as “I just bought and now it’s going down…”), you will be open to and will readily accept contradicting information. Of course you will, because you assumed the trade was wrong to begin with. When you find confirmation for the trade, it is almost a pleasant surprise. Shift your thinking into this mode, and you will be much less likely to overstay your welcome in suboptimal setups that are not working out–you’ll be far more likely to do the right thing, which is usually to pull the plug on the trade (time stop) and look for a better opportunity.- wrote veteran trader Adam Grimes

Categories
Links

Linkfest:Aug 29,2012

Some stuff I am reading today morning:

National Pension Scheme & Taxation at maturity (Anand)

Applying behavioral finance to value investing (SafalNiveshak)

In slowing India, a fast growing star (WSJ)

HDFC warrant holders reap a windfall (ET)

Notes from the John Paulson crowd (TRB)

We are all anarchists now (DailyReckoning)

China,dollar,gold and a theory of relativity (FT)

Categories
Quotes

What was that again?

Even without a new high-tech “fix” for aging, the United Nations estimates that life expectancy over the next century will approach 100 years for women in the developed world and over 90 years for women in the developing world. (Men lag behind by three or four years.)-wrote David Duncan in FT

Categories
Links

Linkfest:Aug 28, 2012

Some stuff I am reading today morning:

Wedding bells for gold (Go2CIO)

Chidambaram’s challenge (Openlib)

Property VAT:Aam Admi caught in tussle (FirstPost)

Osama Suzuki’s war crimes moment (WSJ)

China’s lost decade  (Bespoke)

Why investing is the world’s most difficult profession (Standerfer)

The Mongolia of America (DailyReckoning)

Categories
Stock

The stock that went up 200% in two months

Consider the stock price of this stock on NSE:

27 June 2012:    10.45

27 July 2012:      20.1

27 Aug 2012:      30.25

And the stock is (sound of drumroll): Ashapura Minechem

Now here is an interesting aspect to this whole jacking up of prices.

In these two months, the value of the total delivered shares on NSE is around 9.92 Crores.Now assuming BSE has the same volumes, the value of the delivered quantity on both the exchanges is approximately 20 Crores.

Now the market cap of the company has increased by 160 Crores in the interim.

So an investment of 20 Crores (actually a fraction of that much due to circular trading) can increase the market cap of your company by 160 Crores.

No wonder John Bogle saidWe live in a world in which it is far easier to hype the price of a company’s stock than it is to build the intrinsic value of the corporation itself”