“Fucking Eric Schmidt is a fucking pussy!I’m going to fucking bury that guy! I have done it before and I will do it again. I’m going to fucking kill Google.”- said Microsoft CEO, Steve Balmer
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If I can give you one piece of financial advice, it’s: If somebody offers you a guaranteed 7% on your money for the rest of your life, you take it and just make sure the guy’s name isn’t Madoff.- said Mayor Michael Bloomberg
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When a company does report its earnings, markets will react to the “news” in the report but the way we measure the news has to be relative to expectations. Thus, a company that reports that its earnings went up by 30% may be seen as delivering bad news, if investors were expecting an increase of 40%, and a firm that announces an earnings decline of 30% may be providing positive information, if the expectation was that earnings would decline by 40%. Thus, it is not the magnitude of the earnings change that matter but the “surprise” in the earnings, measured as the earnings change relative to expectations–wrote Aswath Damodaran
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Hugh Hendry has been dead wrong about China for three years now and China has not collapsed as he predicted, loudly, verbally and widely.Albert Edwards has been bearish on everything for a long time. So if you are telling me he is bearish on China and bullish on everything else that would be different. But no, he is bearish on everything, including you, me and Mother Teresa.”-said Jim Rogers
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Let me tell you a story.
I once interviewed at a hedge fund that was making a major bet on its prediction that the housing bubble would implode.
Smart money, right?
However, that interview took place in early 2003, right before the Housing Index (^HGX) doubled.
Likewise, a lot of folks were short Netflix (NFLX) last year as it crashed and burned from that $304.79 high hit on July 13, 2011.
However, many a bear’s butt was fried on the 73% rally the stock staged before it finally died out.
So when you have an investment thesis in your mind, ask yourself, “What makes now the right time to bet on this?”
Furthermore, if the S&P 500 (^GSPC) is skyrocketing, it is entirely likely that junky companies rally big-time.
Likewise, if the market’s in meltdown mode, even the best of the best can get smashed.
Apple (AAPL) closed out 2007 at $198.08. But in 2008, even in the face of enormous earnings beats and the halo of the iPhone’s unprecedented success, Apple finished the year at $85.35 — a drop of 57%!
You may be smart, but remember: Sometimes Mr. Market just does not give a damn about what you think.
–wrote Michael Comeau at Minyanville