An old joke about Reliance goes like this:
“There are two types of people in government-friends of Reliance and servants of Reliance”
The truth behind this joke has now become evident.
Along with Natwar Singh, Reliance Petroleum was named in the Volcker Report as a beneficiary of the oil-for-food scam.Yet it was let off scot free
When the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was asked why,he replied “After all, what can I do? It is India’s largest corporate.” (source:Caravan)
The owners of India Inc (as per NSE):
The Market Cap to GDP ratio is used sometimes as an indicator to check the valuations of the markets.
In the Indian context, (using BSE valuations) this ratio really took off after 2002-03.(source:SEBI)
Is this indicator any good?
In 2000, according to statistics at the World Bank the market cap to GDP ratio for the U.S. was 153%. Subsequently, the dot com bubble burst.
However, in 2003, the ratio was around 130%, but the market rally continued over the next few years.( see here)
“The correct attitude of the investor toward the MarketCap to GDP ratio might well be that of a man toward his wife. He shouldn’t pay too much attention to what the lady says, but he can’t afford to ignore it entirely !!”
The Dept of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations has prepared a great study on world urban populations (see here)
Increasing urbanization is a huge mega trend with huge implications for all of us (especially Indians).
The chart below shows the projected increase in urban populations in India till 2050
If these projections come to pass, then our Indian cities will add around 500 million people to the existing urban populations in the next 40 years !
Considering our choking infrastructure, water scarcity, high food inflation,pathetic sewage systems- a doubling of urban populations can lead to severe social and economic stress.
On the other hand, increasing urbanization can also lead to investment opportunities especially in real estate and agro commodities.
Rip Van Winkle trades are trades wherein you put on a trade and forget about it for twenty or more years.
Many times such trades turn out to be the best trades of all.
In the Indian context, some of these trades would have been:
1.Buying agricultural land on the outskirts of any of the metros/cities.
2.Buying blue chip stocks like ITC, Infosys etc
3.Buying prime residential/commercial property in the metros
It is a useful thought experiment to think of Rip Van Winkle trades for the future:
What trades ,if you put on now and not do anything for the next 20 years, can give a great return?