Category: Excerpts

With global emerging markets again under pressure, India might seem an unlikely port in the storm. Promises of far-reaching economic reforms under Prime Minister Narendra Modi are still to be delivered, while hopes of a rapid investment-led recovery under his leadership remain unfulfilled.

But with China’s equity market convulsed by a painful sell-off, India finds itself the happy recipient of investment searching for safety in the developing world.

The benchmark Sensex index has lost more than 2 per cent over the past two days, reflecting investor unease over much larger falls in China. But the index has eked out a 0.6 per cent increase over the past three months. Though not likely to set pulses racing, this makes India the only country in Asia to see markets rise over that period.

Since the Chinese sell-off began on July 15, the Shanghai index has dropped nearly 30 per cent. Indian stocks, meanwhile, are up around 5 per cent.

“There was some reallocation out of India and towards China earlier this summer. That has now stopped, and some of it seems to be coming back,” says Rashesh Shah, the founder of Edelweiss, a Mumbai financial services group. “Investors I speak to see China as a lot riskier now.”-from FT

Source:James Crabtree

Just love the attitude of India’s NexGen

Rules of thumb aren’t perfect, of course. But that’s their advantage. By starting with a strategy you know isn’t perfect, you naturally leave yourself room for error, and are more flexible in accepting the market’s whims.

So I don’t use fancy valuation models to calculate how much stocks should return over the next 10 years. I assume 6% a year after inflation over the long haul. I figure that’s good enough.

I don’t forecast what the market will do this year. I assume the market will go down half of all days, a third of all years, and a fifth of all decades. That’s probably good enough.

I don’t predict what the economy will do this year. I assume we’ll have a recession every five to seven years. Good enough.

Don’t bother me with calculators that show me how much money I’ll have in 30 years. I don’t know what my bills will be next month. I save as much money as I reasonably can while living a lifestyle that I’m content with. I figure that’s good enough.

Spare me with your analysis of why I should own stocks from some country because of economic trends. I’m diversified, and accept part of my portfolio will always be doing worse than others. I figure that’s good enough. –from Motley Fool