Notes from Traders Carnival 2015 Conference-Day 3

The guest post below has been written by Haresh Nagpal. Haresh  has more than 20 years of experience in the Indian Financial Markets and is very well respected in the financial community.

His Notes of the Traders Carnival 2015 Conference-Day 1 and Day 2 can be obtained from here and here


On the Third Day ,the first Session was by Shubham Aggarwal from Motilal Oswal brokerage on Quant strategies.

He strongly believed that in 15 years from now trading will not be human to human but machine to machine war.He was talking about ROBO Traders. Shubham showed some of systems they have developed and will soon be available for retail.

Key Learning :
When ADX is less then 20 do not trade or use mean reversion techniques.

The Next Session was by Brijesh Bhatia ,The Bat Man on Harmonics Patterns .I think it is not easy to learn Harmonics but full credit to Brijesh that in two hours he made it look so easy and made every one at least pick up those ABCD patterns. At the end of his session, almost all TC participants were thinking of dragons, bats, butterflies, bats and crabs . These are the Harmonic Patterns Brijesh discussed in his session  .

The Next Session was by Nooresh Merani , a good friend who gave his presentation on “How to become a Full time trader “  .He has shared his presentation on his blog.

At the end, he compared the Dow Jones and Sensex pointing to  some huge targets for the index in long run.

Next Session was by Deepak Shenoy of Capital Mind fame on Trading using macros ,market breadth etc .He explained some unique ways of trading markets looking at DESI MO ,% of Shares trading above 20 Day Moving average and below  20 day in Nifty and Put call ratio .

In the last slide, Deepak told the reason why FIIs are selling in India- IPOs in China are hitting 10% Circuit from last 30 days.He gave example of one such company BEJING BAOFENG TECH CO LTD. Lets Trade in China Guys !!

The Last Session was by Rajandran R of Marketcalls fame.For him, Market is his wife till he finds one.He  shared his strategy REGIME SWITCHING and told a new Monkey story in which experts don’t do much .

Key Take away from Story
  • It is not possible to beat the market all the time even for experts and the monkeys .
  • Right Knowledge is required rather than Maximum Knowledge .
His strategy is to find Auto correlation.and then:
  • If Auto correlation < 0 use mean reversion strategies
  • If Auto correlation > 0 use Trend following method


Some of the learnings and quotes  from fellow participants:
  •  Manish Shah: In Fundamentals you first lose funds and then you lose your mental.
  • Sriram:  It is sometimes good to keep your money in bank .

In the end I wish to congratulate  DJ and Rekha ,the organizers along with TC Core team for the good show.See you next year folks .Good Bye.



Notes from Traders Carnival 2015 Conference-Day 2

The guest post below has been written by Haresh Nagpal. Haresh  has more than 20 years of experience in the Indian Financial Markets and is very well respected in the financial community.

His Notes of the Traders Carnival 2015 Conference-Day 1 can be obtained from here

On Second Day, the First Session was by Naveen  Swamy (nick name  “speculator”), a full time trader  and true mentor to many.

The session was on soft skills of trading like money management ,position sizing ,compounding and many more.
According to him, traders are High IQ society with Low EQ.Long Term Endeavor of trading is consistency ,sustainability  and being Happy .He also told how to evolve as a trader.
Key Learning :
  • Trading loss is result of your trading systems and your own psychology
  • Trading Requires least amount of intelligence.


Next Session was by Mahesh Bharat Singh on Mind Games -Cognitive Dissonance .It was quite a interesting session .

In psychology, cognitive dissonance is the mental stress or discomfort experienced by an individual who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values at the same time, or is confronted by new information that conflicts with existing beliefs, ideas, or values. This is what traders experience day in and day  out .In the end he told the ways to overcome this.
Third Session was by Prashant Shah)  on Point and Figures chart , the oldest charting method .He explained Point and  Figure charting in  detail in 3 hour session along with various patterns like double top buy , double bottom sell & High and low poles.He also told how p & s charts can be used for targets.
Some of the patterns he explained was:
Long Entry Patterns :
  • Double Top  Buy above 10 C SMA
  • Double Top Buy after Low Pole

Long Exit  Patterns :

  • Double Bottom Sell
  • High Pole

For shorts it is just the opposite.

Key learning :
45 degree trend line demarcate the line at which price is considered to be in bull or bear trend.
Next Session  of the day was by Rishi Umrania on Market Profile ,the most “in” thing in Technical Analysis now days .Rishi broke down Market Profile for all of us .
Rishi uses software named Market Delta for Market Profile.He told various patterns in Market profile and how it be combined with other indicators to get best results.At the end, he explained about  Order Flow and how that can benefit the traders.
Conferences GuestPost

Notes from Traders Carnival 2015 Conference-Day 1

The guest post below has been written by Haresh Nagpal. Haresh  has more than 20 years of experience in the Indian Financial Markets and is very well respected in the financial community.

I attended  Traders Carnival on 01/05/2015 to 03/05/2015 at ITC Maratha Mumbai ( a repeat offender from last three years ) . For me, it is an opportunity to meet  in person with people who I interact on Twitter on a daily basis .

The first session was conducted by Abhijeet Pathak ,a seasoned Options Trader.

Abhijeet has a unique way of trading options. He jokingly calls guys dealing in options looking at option greeks  as Chaturs of 3 Idiots .I liked his way of looking at ratio of  Nifty options with Nifty futures .

Key Learning :

200Day Moving averages in any time frame is usually respected even in option charts .

Key Fact :

Now days retail is writing more options than FIIs and Prop desks !!

The second session was on metrics for value investing  by Debashis Basu of MoneyLife .Debashis divided his session into four parts:

  • Common approach and Myth
  • Key Facts about Stocks
  • A suggested approach
  • Face the Enemy of success

Some Value Concepts by him :

  • High Dividend Yield  -but price may not appreciate
  • Low p/e -Remain low P/E because of Low E .Jokingly he quoted his friend a well known fund manager : “P/E is number of years the co is going to exist “.
  • Growth at reasonable price
  • Book Value: It may be inflated
  • Stable earning: No growth
  • Fallen Angels: May remain fallen
  • Great Companies: No appreciation
  • Hidden Bargain: How do you really know
  • IPO : It is time when we are forced by seller to buy at a particular price

Key learning :

Since stocks are risky and can fall to any level as investors our foremost task is to control the risk and for him risk is high valuation.

Fact :

  • No expert is ever questioned even if he has been wrong a number of times
  • Shanker Sharma: Average Fund Manger is chasing momentum 90% of time

Third Session was by Sucheta Dalal on Bull Markets ,Scams and due -diligence for retail traders.

She gave a nice talk on how certain managements cheat people .She appealed to every one to raise their voice against  any wrong doing by any capital market participant.She complained that people are not willing to fight their own battles .

Next session was by Anil Padia– Ace trader using Ichimoku charts .He gave a talk on Traders Psychology  and Ichimoku charts .According to him the biggest risk in trading is you.He told about our belief systems and how they are formed and how they effect our trading.

Key learning :

  • All systems work well ,only the person who works is not working well.
  • Van Thorpe: You don’t trade Market ,you trade your belief.

Fact :

About 80% of trading desk in Japan use this strategy

Last session of day which went till midnight was by Shiva Galrani ,a friend from Dubai who is working with a MNC and is famous for his excel skills and MA cross over strategy.

The system is an EMA (Exponential Moving average system ) crossover strategy .It is a stop and reverse system so he is all the time in markets either short or long.
If some one wants to to learn discipline , Shiva is the guy to follow.He has a system in which he trades first 15 minutes in market and last 15 minutes ,since he has a job he cannot watch market whole day.

He is an inspiration to students of trend following systems.


Notes from AVCJ Private Equity Conference – Day 2

Attended the AVCJ Private Equity Conference today as well

Here were the key takeaways:

Rajesh Srivastava,Chairman & MD Rabo Equity Advisors

  • Can vouch things are changing for the better in government
  • Earlier, has to answer “Why India” to foreign investors.Now this Q is no longer being asked

Srinath Srinivasan,CEO,Oman India Joint Investment Fund

  • Investee companies still to benefit from change in government
  • Benefits will trickle down in 18-24 months
  • Can confidently say that the heart of the government is in the right place

Mohit Ralhan,Managing Partner,TIW Private Equity

  • 2 fundamental changes in India
    • Real interest rates in India are now positive
    • Cash is balance sheets of large companies are greater than that in 2007
  • This can act as a spur to savings and capex cycle
  • Promoters don’t give illiquidity discount in India
  • Prefer share repurchases as an exit option

Ruby Arya,Vice-Chairman & Director,Milestone Capital Advisors

  • Real estate can give 2x returns not multibaggers
  • On the flip side, unlikely investors will lose money in real estate unlike equity
  • 14 Billion US $ has come in real estate via PE
  • Easier to exit in Real Estate

Sanjay Kukreja,MD,ChrysCapital

  • 47 exits since inception
  • Exits possible only in a few sectors where liquidity exists
    • Financial Services
    • Pharma
    • Business Services etc
  • Exits v difficult in other sectors such as
    • Power
    • Infra
    • Manufacturing etc

Ameera Shah,MD & CEO,Metropolis Healthcare

  • Most PE firms can’t add value in terms of business growth and profit margins
  • Can add value in
    • Corporate Governance
    • Data Analytics
  • Dislike the following about PE firms
    • Unable to state clearly how they are different from others
    • Unable to state clearly if their returns are coming at entrepreneur’s cost
    • Unwilling to put in the same effort/time for their smaller ticket investments as compared to their bigger investments

Pramod Bhasin,Founder & Vice-Chairman Genpact

  • PE firms can help in the following areas:
    • Board Formation
    • Compensation Practices
    • Strategy
    • Connecting with potential clients
  • Advice for PE firms
    • Get operational expertise
    • Stay in for the long term-don’t exit early

Sanjay Aga,Director,Mahindra Logistics

  • PE firms in India have little operational expertise
  • Hence unable to identify which companies/sectors can do well
  • Hence indulge in “herd like” momentum investiing

Nupur Garg,Regional Lead-PE Funds,IFC

  • Performance of Indian PE has been poor as compared to China
  • As per Cambridge Associates.
    • Over 10 year period,Indian PE funds have returned 12% Gross IRR while China returned 24% Gross IRR
    • Over 5 year period,Indian PE funds have returned 5% Gross IRR while China returned 25.5% Gross IRR
    • Over 3 year period,Indian PE funds have returned -2.9% Gross IRR while China returned 14% Gross IRR

Notes from AVCJ Private Equity Conference – Day 1

Attended the AVCJ Private Equity Conference yesterday

Here were the key takeaways:

Dr.Samiran Chakraborty,MD,Global Research,Standard Chartered

  • Rupee is undervalued by at least 10%
  • Growth recovery in India is 6-12 months away
  • Inflation will be lower next year-expect a 50-100 bps rate cut next year
  • Three stabilities-Macro,Economic and Currency-are coming together for India
  • 2015 is a year for India to lose-turnaround year for India

Sanjay Nayar,CEO,KKR India

  • 30$-40$ Billion of exits are pending in India
  • Reasons why PE in India are struggling
    • Poor Macro-Political uncertainty,currency volatility etc
    • Poor Micro-Management etc
    • Overpaid for assets
    • Much lesser influence on management
    • Lack of exits

Shankar Narayanan,MD,The Carlyle Group

  • In India, What you see is not what you get
  • Don’t invest in turnarounds as don’t believe toads can become princes
  • Two attributes to watch in an entreprenur
    • Drive/Hunger to succeed
    • Integrity
      • With respect to how he treats you as a partner
      • With respect to laws etc

Gopal Jain,Managing Partner,Gaja Capital

  • Dislike politicians.Don’t rely on them for doing the right thing
  • Focus on defensive demand, not discretionary demand
  • 90% of capital in PE in India is from global investors
  • Obsession with promoters is going away
  • Good promoters are in short supply and they know that

Renuka Ramnath,Founder & CEO,Multiples Alternate Asset Management

  • By 2020,India will be a $ 4 Trillion economy
  • The PE industry will be around 100 Billion $
  • Expect reverse flow of capital from listed to unlisted via delisting/demerger and M&A
  • Expect more of secondaries going forward

Peter Casey,Executive Chairman,Claddagh Resources

  • Commandments for Entrepreneurs
    • Get your loved ones on board
    • Listen to your inner voice and the messages the Universe is sending you
    • Don’t fear failure
    • Get a Mentor
    • Prepare to fail, because there is a good chance you will.Leave a little fuel in your tank
    • Do the right thing,don’t take shortcuts
  • Discipline is the horse that you have to ride

Niren Shah,MD,Norwest Venture Partners

  • Betting on Internet and Mobile in India
  • For an online classifieds investment,70% of ads now come from Mobile
  • Never sell anybody a lemon because they will not do business with you again

Pradeep Tagare,Director,Intel Capital India

  • Indian startup ecosystem is still evolving
  • Exits are almost non-existent
  • It takes luck to be a good VC in India