China is going broke.
This statement comes as a shock to those who have heard over and over that China is a rising economic superstar and will soon be the greatest economy on Earth, surpassing the U.S. in the No. 1 role.
How can China be going broke?
China started 2015 with about $4 trillion in hard currency reserves. About $1 trillion fled the country in 2015 and 2016 based on fears of yuan devaluation. That’s classic capital flight.
Another $1 trillion is relatively illiquid, including direct investments in mines and natural resources through sovereign wealth funds such as China Investment Corp. That’s wealth, but it’s not money that can be used in a liquidity crisis.
Finally, $1 trillion has to be held as a precautionary reserve to bail out China’s insolvent banks and Ponzi-style “wealth management products.” Failure to bail out the banks… could lead to social unrest that would topple Communist rule, so that won’t be allowed.
That leaves only $1 trillion of the original $4 trillion in liquid form. And if it keeps jettisoning dollars at this rate,China will be devoid of usable liquid assets by late 2017.-from DR
2 replies on “China is going broke”
Based on the hyposthesis of going broke, china started with $2 trillion only instead of $4 trillion , hence lose out one only $1 trillion
Rest $4 trillion is il-liquid as the analysis claim.
Result could be selling US bonds by China?