Forecasting Folly:Goldman Sachs Edition

Hat Tip:Bala

Around a year back,on 4 December 2014,the following article came in ET:

Top US brokerage Goldman Sachs today said it is bullish on India and sees Nifty hitting 9,500 -mark by end-2015 due to strong capital inflows in the country which is expected to become fastest-growing large emerging market economy in the 2016-18 period.

“We stay overweight on cyclical recovery and reform progress and expects Nifty to reach 9,500 at end-2015,” Goldman Sachs Chief Asia Pacific Regional Equity Strategist Timothy Moe told reporters here

The 50-share NSE benchmark index today ended at 8,564. “We forecast a large balance of payments surplus in 2015 driven by a narrowing of the current account deficit and strong capital inflows. We forecast mid-teens earnings growth in 2015-16 largely driven by banks, IT and a few cyclical sectors,” he said.

Forecasting Folly,anyone?

2 replies on “Forecasting Folly:Goldman Sachs Edition”

I suppose the comments are well in line directionally. It’s only the timing which seems to be off track. The Fed rate hike was the single biggest spoiler for all Emerging markets.

Remember when they said Crude will go to 200$/bbl and then when it fell to 60, said it will go to 20$/bbl…….They are article writers not forecasters…..I hate the so called wise long term forecasts

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