Coalgate:Who benefits?

The impact of scams is always felt in the stock markets.For instance, in the 2G scam, stocks like Unitech,DB Realty, RCom etc were hammered out of shape.

The recent controversy over coal allocations is interesting from a stock market perspective.

If the coal allocations are cancelled, the list of losers is a long one (see here and here)

But will there be any winners?If a shortage of domestic coal looms,then imports of thermal coal will increase.India’s Coal import has touched 140 Mio MT in FY 12, representing a 50% jump over 86 Mio MT imported last year. Of the total imports, 90 Mio MT would be Thermal Coal.

So pure play importers of thermal coal could turn out to be big winners of the Coalgate scam.

One of the listed players in this field is Mercator.While I had blogged earlier about the shenanigans of their promoters,it seems like a good candidate to ride the thermal coal import wave.

(Disclaimer:Buy/Sell at your own risk and don’t chew my a** if it doesn’t work out !!)

What was that again?

Because while I have no special expertise or experience in forecasting the vicissitudes of core European diplomacy and socioeconomic policy, I do know white people.  And I know wealthy white people, in particular.  And wealthy white people, American or otherwise, can always be counted on to compromise at the last moment so as to preserve the status quo.  And that compromise will typically involve whichever option is the least painful, even if it means that more work must be done in the future (the proverbial can-kick).  And we know that euro printing, even if it means a bit of inflation for the German middle class to wrassle with, is probably worth it if the task is preserving the hegemony of the  creditors, rentiers, landed gentry and aristocracy. And so eventually, no matter how scary the headlines become or how volatile markets become in the short-term, you can expect a compromise that the wealthy and powerful elites (read: the markets) can live with.  You can set your Swiss watch by it.  Keep this in the back of your mind when the bullshit artists come on TV or puke their newsletters into your inbox.  They are very intellectually intelligent, but they are also misanthropic social outcasts who do not and have not ever understood the way people work-wrote Josh Brown in The Reformed Broker