M3 indicators shows inflation here to stay

RBI has come out with its annual Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy 2011-12.As usual, it is a treasure chest of useful information and stats.

One of the most interesting stat is the components of money stock.The stats indicate that the M3 indicator increased by the following rates:

2008-09:18.75%

2009-10: 16.84%

2010-11:16.09%

2011-12:13.14%

There is considerable research which indicates that M3 indicator is a good predictor of medium term inflation.As Milton Friedman said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”.

So whether RBI cuts rates tomorrow or not, be prepared for elevated levels of inflation.

Weekend Mega Linkfest:Sep 15, 2012

Some interesting off beat reads for the weekend:

Mickey Mouse Nation (IndrajitHazra)

The fading red light (Open)

Inside the startup secrets of Y Combinator (VanityFair)

How to buy a daughter (Slate)

Why are Finland’s schools successful (Smithsonian)

Rooked:The evolution of cheating in chess (Grantland)

Playing ping pong in China (GQ)

What Netanyahu doesn’t understand about Obama (TheAtlantic)

Crushing debt drove me to Kosova and Iraq (Billfold)

Book Review:Thinking fast and slow (IDreamBooks)

Movie Review: Raaz 3 (VigilIdiot)

Travelogue: A trip to Bolivia (Ghumakkar)

Review of new cars (VeereshMalik)

Green assassin: My 2012 Kawasaki Ninja (TeamBHP)

Why multi brand retail is good news for ADA Stocks

The Centre has taken two key decisions today-one is allowing FDI in multibrand retail and the other is 49% FDI in aviation.

This leaves the Trinamool Congress in a very difficult position as they had publicly opposed these measures.In fact, these measures were shelved/rolled back as the Govt felt that without Trinamool Congress backing it, the Govt would fall.

This time it appears to be different as Dr.Singh in the cabinet meet said “If we have to go down, we have to go down fighting”

So with rollback not in sight and the Congress determined not to back down, TMC will probably withdraw support.

Now this event has a probability of 50%.But what is sure to happen with a 100% probability is that the Govt will turn to the Samajwadi Party for support for these measures.

The Samajwadi party has bailed out the government multiple times in the past.It is quite likely it will bail out the govt again.

Whenever the Samajwadi Party is in a position of power,industrial groups close to it benefit.As everyone knows, Anil Ambani is fairly close to Mulayam Singh having being the Rajya Sabha member of the party.

So, in the banana republic of India where politics and business are bedfellows, expect ADA stocks to rally in the coming weeks on news of multi brand retail !!

When time is your friend

One of the best quotes of Warren Buffett is “Time is the friend of a great business and an enemy of the mediocre one.”

The recent hike in diesel appears to be a part of a mega trend of ever increasing fuel prices.In Nov 2004, the diesel price in Delhi was around Rs.26.Now it is around 47 Rs.In other cities, it is even more.So we have an increase of 80% in this v controlled commodity.

Even at these prices, the oil companies are bleeding and are asking for further increases.Also, the unlimited QE promised by the FED will ensure global crude oil prices remain buoyant.

All these factors point to a future with increasing diesel prices.Now the immediate impact this mega trend is felt on the transportation sector.Freight rates have shot up soon after the announcement of the hike. All India Motor Transport Congress (AIMTC) effected a 15 % increase in the freight charges across the country. AIMTC claims to have around 80 lakh trucks under its fold.

The only real competition to the road haulage comes from the Railways.As per the Parikh report (section 4.9), railways consume 1/4th the diesel per net tonne kilometre as trucks.This implies a huge competitive advantage for the Railways and one of the reasons why Warren Buffett bought a railroad Burlington Northern.

In India, the beneficiary of this mega trend could be Concor (discussed earlier). Its a pity we have the likes of Mukul Roy heading the Railway ministry.But with time as your friend , the future appears promising for Concor.