Today we remember Nani Palkhivala, who said: in India there is only one transfer of wealth – from the honest to the dishonest. #Budget2013
— Salil Tripathi (@saliltripathi) February 28, 2013
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Category: Quotes
The reason I’ve dreaded writing this post for a long time is because I currently find myself taking these questions to the third, and much more gut-wrenching level: Am I being smartly stubborn about sticking with a trading career that holds so much promise? Or am I being stubbornly stupid about a career that gives me nothing but heartache and I should just cut the cord and go dig ditches for a living? I haven’t wanted to write this post because part of me deep down inside fears the answer.
I’m coming up on the 15th Anniversary of my beginning this journey. I started trading in the summer of 1998 and during these 15 years, I’ve experienced fleeting success. Enough to sustain my curiosity, but not enough to secure my financial security. So many times repeatedly over the past decade plus I’ve put tremendous amounts of thought and energy into coming up with trading plans that have a positive expectancy that I was so sure where going to work this time, only to be knocked off course by an errant wave from a direction I hadn’t considered. Again and again. And lately, I’ve been asking myself if riding these waves further out to sea and further away from the Shore of Good Fortune for the past 15 years have been worth it? What do I have to show for it?
Trading is not supposed to be about the money; however, money is undeniably the byproduct of successfully satisfying your curiosity in the financial markets. It is the yardstick by which a Trader is measured. It pains me that after 15 years, it might be more appropriate to measure my success not by a yardstick but by a 12-inch ruler. Most people my age who’ve been in a career for 15 years have achieved some level of financial success and career satisfaction which has allowed them to start families, buy houses, build 401k nest eggs, make investments in other areas of interest, and go on frequent and fun vacations. Me, I’m still grinding it out, fingers crossed that the latest direction I’m on gets me a little bit closer to shore.
Part of me says there is no other path I could have chosen, this is the way it has to be. I wasn’t born with a silver spoon in my mouth. I don’t come from a wealthy family. I didn’t have the right connections, the ivy league pedigree, the Congressman friend to give me insider trading tips. I’m a nobody who was born in a losing town who has to scratch and scrape and fight and sweat just to get a glimpse of the other side of the hill. And then the real work begins when I find out the downhill path to riches is paved with potholes, aggressive speed traps, inclement weather, and a faulty Apple Maps app.
The other part of me – which I’m fighting to suppress – says I’ve already put 15 of my best years into this. If I haven’t achieved my goals by now, when will I? If ever? I should just go and do something more productive with my life before its too late. I’m doing my best to ignore this side of my mind. But this is what makes me wonder if I’m being stubbornly stupid.
I haven’t answered this question yet. The Eternal Optimist in me is leaning toward Smartly Stubborn. My selfish hope is that putting this out there – the act of writing it out to cement my thoughts – will help prevent me from being stubbornly stupid. Only time and P&L will tell. I just hope it tells me soon.-By ChicagoSean
“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”-said Warren Buffett in an interview with the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC)
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For my sake, buy buy buy !!
Should you dive into the stock market? Absolutely. And if you have no money to invest, I recommend getting cash advances against your credit cards. And stop eating, entertaining, and saving for your kids’ educations. Sell your blood if you need to. Put all of that extra money in the stock market. My reasoning is simple: I own stocks and I want you to drive up their prices.
I have a feeling that the smart money is already in the market and those folks are crouching like sprinters, waiting for any sign of bad news. Meanwhile, we are way overdue for some sort of bullshit crisis like the Year 2000 bug, or California going into a death spiral, or an artificial debt limit, or North Korea testing a satellite-based death-ray. When the new fake crisis happens, sometime within the next month, the market will pull back 10%. That’s when I expect to go into a panic and start selling my stocks at a loss.
What the stock market needs – and what I need – is for lots of people who know absolutely nothing about investing to pile into the market and buy broad market ETFs. Then I need those people to poke out their own eyes and caulk their ear holes so they don’t accidentally encounter any news. I don’t think that is too much to ask.
–wrote Scott Adams, Creator of Dilbert
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Why investing is like poker
Too many investors are reactive decision makers… if something has gone up, they say ‘ah, that’s a good investment,’ they don’t say ‘that’s more expensive.’ It’s the most common mistake in investing.
The bets are zero sum. In order for you to beat me in the game, it’s like poker, it’s a zero sum game. We have 1,500 people that work at Bridgewater, we spend hundreds of millions of dollars on research, and so on. We’ve been doing this for 37 years and we don’t know that we’re going to win. We have to have diversified bets. So it’s very important for most people to know when not to make a bet. Because if you’re going to come to the poker table, you’re going to have to beat me, and you’re going to have to beat those who take money. So the nature of investing is that a very small percentage of the people take money essentially in that poker game away from other people who don’t know when prices go up whether that means it’s a good investment or if it’s a more expensive investment.-said Ray Dalio