Day: March 6, 2013

Forecasting Folly:Spanco

This post is in continuation of my forecasting folly series (see here)

I had blogged earlier about Crisil’s forecasting accomplishments (see here).

But this example is quite outrageous in its own right.

On July 28, 2011, Crisil maintained a valuation grade of 5/5 on Spanco and gave it a fair value of Rs.289 per share.Then the prevailing price of Spanco was around 130 Rs.

One year later, on June 04, 2012 , Crisil continued to maintain its valuation grade of 5/5 on Spanco and retained its fair value of Rs.289 per share.Then the prevailing price was Rs.66 per share.

Any investor could have been forgiven for thinking that this is a deal of a lifetime.You have the brilliant minds at Crisil valuing the fair price of a stock around 5x times the market price.

What followed in the next months was a complete collapse in the stock price.Now the stock is trading at 16 Rs !!

Forecasting folly, anyone ?

Tags crisil, spanco

This is India !

How some Indian investors time the stock market

Post author By Raoji
Post date March 6, 2013
No Comments on How some Indian investors time the stock market

This post is in continuation of my This is India ! series (see here)

Apparently, some investors time the stock markets as per their astrologer’s advice

This is an actual message posted on a popular investor forum:

I believe in astrology as whatever he predicts about anybody has always come true.He always says very rightly with correct timing.Politicians goes to him in jaipur.

Second My astrologer(Gold medalist in astrology) said from 12 dec to 5 may My time is very bad so I will not go anywhere apart from sitting in my house.First I lost money in this period then Heart attack.If I will go mumbai then My train will meet with an accident ,that is my time.From 5 may to nov my time is average and then I will have one of best time for next 25 years or till death.So I am not going anywhere till 5 may and then 5 nov.Sun will rise to it`s extreme after this small bad period .

This happens in India !